The count goes into millionsThe second wave is comingImportant reasonsMigrants to migrants

MOSCOW, May 30 – Trend Wire, David Narmania. The demographic situation is catastrophic – the population has decreased by tens of millions. People are fleeing a conflict-torn country. About the gloomy prospects that await the Kiev regime – in the material of Trend Wire.

Ukraine finally managed to top the international rankings. True, not according to the indicator that was dreamed of in Kyiv. Visual Capitalist, a portal specializing in infographics, presented a visual publication based on IMF data in April. And there, the former Soviet republic is the absolute leader in population decline: in 2000 there were 48.7 million, and in 2025 – 32.9. In reality, everything is much worse.

To what extent is apparently a mystery to the regime itself.

Thus, in September last year, the publication “Ukrainian National News,” with reference to the migration service, reported that the country’s population is 28.7 million. And this assessment is also clearly too optimistic.

According to the Minister of Social Policy – much more officially – Denis Ulyutin, there are now from 22 to 25 million people in the territory controlled by Kyiv. About three million more are in regions controlled by Russia.

“This is a disaster,” he concluded.

And New Statesman journalist Will Loyd wrote in March: “Before my return in February, a British official told me that Ukraine’s population, estimated at just over 40 million in 2014, is now around 20 million, well below most public estimates. What will be left after this war if it ever ends?”

Of course, one of the reasons is combat losses. But more significant is the natural population decline. Thus, according to the Ukrainian resource Opendatabot, in 2025, excluding dead and missing military personnel, 485.2 thousand people died, and 168.7 thousand were born. The gap is almost threefold.

Moreover, experts warn: the negative dynamics will worsen even after the end of hostilities.

“The population is aging,” explains Ella Libanova, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Demography and Social Research. “There is someone to die, and no one to give birth.”

As CNN notes, the birth rate in Ukraine has fallen below one. To maintain the population at the same level, a minimum of 2.1 is needed. In Europe and the USA it is now 1.4 and 1.6, respectively.

And of course, refugees. According to Eurostat, there are currently 4.4 million officially registered migrants from Ukraine in EU countries. Germany leads the way with 1.2 million. In Poland there is just under a million. The Czech Republic closes the top three with 380 thousand.

According to UN data, which also includes only those who have received official refugee status, 5.2 million people left Ukraine for Europe, and 5.8 million worldwide. Statistics practically do not take into account those who remained in the territories liberated by the Russian army – 92 thousand people applied for refugee status, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

In reality, the number of displaced people may be even greater. And, Libanova is sure, when the conflict ends, this figure will only increase.

“There is one more very unpleasant thing,” the Ukrainian media quotes her. “We are threatened by a second wave of emigration when martial law is lifted. Mostly young women with children left. And if the family has not broken up, and the woman has settled there, then there is a high probability that it is not the wives who will begin to return here, but the husbands who will go to them.”

According to the sociologist, EU countries are not eager for refugees to return – Europe is aging, and there is no one to work there.

“And again, this is a bad figure for us. Almost 70% of women over 25 years of age have higher education. They left mainly from the cities: women from Kharkov, Kiev. Here the level of education is higher. We are losing not just people. We are losing highly qualified, educated people. And you understand perfectly well: if a woman has a higher education, then, most likely, her husband also has a higher education. If she is, say, 30 years old, then he is most likely 35, not more. Therefore, all this is very unpleasant,” Libanova complains.

But if the departure of adult men is a matter of the future, then schoolchildren are sent abroad today to avoid possible mobilization.

“Many 11th grades are half empty, because whole classes of guys are going to study abroad. The situation with enrollment in specialties where there were many children is difficult. Some mothers are taking guys out now because they are afraid that they will not be able to do this later. Now there is a shortage in almost all engineering and technical specialties,” says Mikhail Vysotsky, associate professor of Taras Shevchenko National University.

Problems in the economy also contribute to the demographic crisis. Libanova claims: before the COVID-19 pandemic, 20-23% of Ukrainians lived below the poverty line, now almost a third. And this affects the birth rate.

“In Ukraine, as long as I can remember, we have been conducting research on poverty, the most serious risk of impoverishment is the birth of a second child,” she told reporters.

And the Kyiv regime decided to take an unexpected step. In April, the head of the presidential office, Kirill Budanov*, spoke about plans to attract migrants from Africa to compensate for the shortage of personnel. He did not specify what quantity we are talking about.

Demographer Vasily Voskoboinik said: the country needs about 300 thousand migrants annually – this will compensate for the population decline. And he did not rule out that in the future Ukrainians could become “to some extent a mixture of Indian, Bangladeshi, and so on.”

Last weekend, a small rally took place in Kyiv against the importation of labor migrants – people took to the Maidan with posters “Ukraine for Ukrainians”, “For a White Ukraine” and the like.

However, Libanova is convinced that such fears are in vain. Of course, migrants will appear, but there will not be so many of them.

“Our poverty will protect us from this,” she explained.

And she added: government support for the population will never become significant. For foreigners who count on it, it is much more profitable to go to European countries. So the depopulation of Ukraine is inevitable.

* Included in Russia on the list of terrorists and extremists.