In Australia, nicotine use has increased by 40 percent since 2017. This is mainly because illegal tobacco sales have grown enormously, reports the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Australia is known for its strict anti-smoking policy. Since 2017, the government has tripled the price of tobacco. A pack of cigarettes easily costs 25 euros. The aim was to reduce the number of smokers. But instead, nicotine use has actually increased in recent years.

The ABS explains this by the rise of the illegal tobacco trade. Where in 2017 only 12 percent of smoking Australians bought illegal tobacco, it will be 80 percent in 2025. In the illegal trade the price has remained virtually the same.

According to the Australian government, this concerns tobacco that is illegally produced in Australia and cigarettes that are smuggled into the country from outside the country. Researchers emphasize that the increase is mainly due to illegal cigarettes, but the rising sales of e-cigarettes and other nicotine-containing products also play a role.

The percentage of their income that households spend on tobacco each month in Australia has fallen between 2017 and 2025. Households spend about the same amount of money on tobacco as in 2016, because so many more people buy their tobacco on the illegal market.

The government is also raising tobacco prices in the Netherlands to encourage people to quit smoking. And here too, this leads to a growth in the illegal tobacco trade.

In the Netherlands this is done by smuggling legally produced cigarettes from other EU countries. In those countries, tobacco prices are much lower. Special professor of Tobacco ControlMarc Willemsen has seen increasing smuggling of tobacco products from Romania and Bulgaria since the excise duty increases of 2023 and 2024.

Bottom line, according to Willemsen, Dutch policy does have a positive effect. “Nicotine use is definitely declining. More people are quitting smoking and fewer young people are starting. Although this is not only due to the price increase, but mainly because cigarettes are no longer allowed to be sold in supermarkets.”

Although the illegal trade has increased, the vast majority of people in the Netherlands still buy their tobacco legally. Since the last excise duty increase in 2024, a pack of cigarettes in Dutch shops costs an average of 11.10 euros.